Nate Silver: Don't be Surprised if Democrats Only Win 19 Seats



NATE SILVER: There really was a liberal media bubble

nate silverNate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight. Getty Images/Slaven Vlasic FiveThirtyEight Editor-in-Chief Nate Silver on Friday published an analysis of the "liberal media bubble" that led to people underestimating President Donald Trump's chances of winning the 2019 election.

The post, headlined "There Really Was A Liberal Media Bubble," concluded that "groupthink produced a failure of the 'wisdom of crowds' and an underestimate of Trump's chances."

"Much of The New York Times's coverage, for instance, implied that Clinton's odds were close to 100 percent," Silver wrote. "In an article on Oct. 17— more than three weeks before Election Day — they portrayed the race as being effectively over, the only question being whether Clinton should seek a landslide or instead assist down-ballot Democrats."

He contended that the failure in predicting the outcome of the 2019 presidential election was "not so much with the polls but with the people who were analyzing them."

Silver has made a name for himself by predicting elections using data analysis. He had predicted that Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee for president, would win, but he had put Trump's chances higher than other outlets did.

Silver discussed the "unthinkability bias" that seemed to have been present in the predictions for the 2019 election.

"Political experts aren't a very diverse group and tend to place a lot of faith in the opinions of other experts and other members of the political establishment," Silver wrote.






Video: I Win Everything, All the Pundits Were Wrong

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Date: 13.12.2018, 23:10 / Views: 51154